§ What were the assumptions
of the model and the data analysis the authors used?
Assumptions of the model were that the social network adoption spread very similarly to the way diseases spread amongst a finite population.
Assumptions of the model were that the social network adoption spread very similarly to the way diseases spread amongst a finite population.
They also assumed that
there would be a gradual disuse of social networks as users and their peers
begin to lose interest. Hence, it reflected the gradual reduction in number of
members, much similar to the cured number of people in epidemiological
progression.
Authors also assume that web traffic is the general metric to measure the data of social network usage.
Authors also assume that web traffic is the general metric to measure the data of social network usage.
§ Find three arguments that
could call the authors’ conclusions into question.
Three arguments I believe that bring the authors’ conclusions into question are:
1) Users shall gradually get disinterested in a social networking platform. – This assumption implies that the interest in social networking platforms is short-lived and finite in nature.
2) There were simply far too few cases to reflect and predict against, to imply that user adoption of OSNs reflected an epidemiological nature.
3) Empirical data points to their prediction of Facebook losing its size to 20% of its maximum size by December 2014, to be disproved, implying, there are more reasons as to the continuance or rejection of OSNs which are not within the context of SIR or irSIR models.
Three arguments I believe that bring the authors’ conclusions into question are:
1) Users shall gradually get disinterested in a social networking platform. – This assumption implies that the interest in social networking platforms is short-lived and finite in nature.
2) There were simply far too few cases to reflect and predict against, to imply that user adoption of OSNs reflected an epidemiological nature.
3) Empirical data points to their prediction of Facebook losing its size to 20% of its maximum size by December 2014, to be disproved, implying, there are more reasons as to the continuance or rejection of OSNs which are not within the context of SIR or irSIR models.
§ Check the statistics of
the keyword “Facebook” in Google Trends. Compare it with the prediction proposed in the paper, as well as with data search for Twitter,
Youtube and Whatsapp. Comment the results!
The results forTwitter, and Whatsapp are almost all flat, which is significantly different from what we observe with Facebook and Youtube, in the results.
By comparison, Facebook seems to be the highest in traffic count, followed in order by, Youtube, Twitter, and Whatsapp.
Only Whatsapp shows a consistently positive rise in graph, which is opposite to the prediction of the irSIR model, of reaching a peak, and then going into a gradual decline in usage and interest over time.
Twitter has undergone a reduction from its peak, but has maintained a relatively flat and unchanging interest since October 2015, for almost 3 years now.
Although Facebook has been consistently showing decline, it is undergoing a decay which is slower than predicted by the model in the paper in question, as well as the results can not be surmised a definitive progress towards complete decay, as observed with Youtube, and Twitter, wherein the results are indicative of a possibility of reaching a stasis stage, from where interest in the OSN might not waver much, any further.
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| Screenshot of the Comparison between the four OSNs since 2004-present. |
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